Belgian government reaches crucial Easter deal
Shortly before midnight on Friday, the Belgian federal government concluded a long-awaited 'Easter agreement', marking a major milestone in this legislature. Prime minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) presented a comprehensive growth path for the country, with particular emphasis on defence. "This agreement contains reforms that can be considered historic," he said.
This first budget round proved particularly complex due to the turbulent geopolitical and economic context, including heightened uncertainty about military support from the United States. Despite these challenges, De Wever's N-VA maintained its ambition to increase defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP during the current legislature. However, reaching this target has proved more difficult than expected.
2% by the end of the year
The government has committed to raising defence spending to 2% of GDP by the end of this year. Reaching this benchmark will require an investment of around €17 billion over the course of the legislature. Funding for 2025 will come from taxes on frozen Russian assets held in Euroclear, dividends from public shareholdings and the possible sale of state assets.
Finance minister Vincent Van Peteghem (CD&V) announced that the regions would also be consulted to assess which of their investments could count towards NATO's 2% target. Structural reforms to generate new revenue are not expected until the 2026 budget.
Tighter migration rules
On migration, the agreement streamlines the asylum process. Applications from people already registered or in the process of being registered in another EU member state will be quickly deemed inadmissible by the Office of the Commissioner General for Refugees and Stateless Persons (CGVS). Parents whose asylum applications have been rejected will no longer be able to submit new applications on behalf of their children.
The rules on family reunification will also be tightened. Income thresholds will be graduated according to the number of dependants and new waiting periods of one to two years will be introduced, depending on the residence status of the sponsor.
Notably absent from the agreement is the proposed legal codification of the asylum waiting list. The N-VA had sought to enshrine in law the practice, introduced in 2022, of prioritising the reception of vulnerable groups such as women and children. However, the waiting list remains legally controversial and has led to numerous condemnations by Belgian courts and the European Court of Human Rights for violating the right to reception of male asylum seekers.
Tackling prison overcrowding
The Ministry of Justice will receive an extra €150 million this year, partly to ease prison overcrowding. Justice minister Annelies Verlinden (CD&V) said modular prison units would be funded as part of the effort. The government also plans to step up the deportation of prisoners who are in the country illegally.
We were practically the last country in the world where being unemployed could be a life choice
From 1 January 2026, unemployment benefits will be limited to a maximum of two years. "We were practically the last country in the world where being unemployed could be a life choice," De Wever said. The only major exception will be for people studying to become healthcare assistants, who will be entitled to benefits for three to four years until they complete their studies. Transitional arrangements will apply to other shortage occupations.
To tackle the rise in long-term sickness absence, the government will increase scrutiny of doctors with unusually high rates of sick leave prescriptions. Employers will also be made partly financially responsible by paying part of the sickness benefit during the first two months of absence.
An earlier proposal to freeze the indexation of the highest pensions did not survive the final negotiations. Instead, high pensions will be indexed at the same level as the minimum pension.
More challenges ahead
A key question remains: how will the numerous policy relaxations and additional spending on defence and justice affect Belgium's fiscal path, nicknamed "Arizona"? Updated budget figures are not yet available.
We will have to make historically important decisions
The government acknowledges that 2025 will be a transitional year, when it will become clear that the fiscal path agreed at the time of its formation will not be met. "We will now start working on the 2026 budget as soon as possible," De Wever said. "There, too, we will have to make historically important decisions."
© BELGA PHOTO HATIM KAGHAT
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