Elections 2024: Belgium’s federal government crisis deepens as possible coalition nears collapse

After months of fruitless negotiations, Bart De Wever is expected to tender his resignation as formateur on Monday. It will push Belgium into a precarious situation with few viable alternatives remaining.

After the 9 June elections, many Belgians kept their hopes up for a quick federal government formation. With the right-wing N-VA, led by De Wever, emerging as the winner in Flanders and the liberal MR dethroning the socialists in Wallonia, a coalition was, according to many observers, within reach. However, the centre-right alliance De Wever tried to form - involving his own party, Les Engagés, MR, the Christian Democratic CD&V and the socialist Vooruit party - has been facing insurmountable friction over the past few weeks. 

Socialist resistance

Conner Rousseau, chairman of Vooruit, has become the key obstacle, openly rejecting the proposed framework. Rousseau has argued that, as the only left-leaning party, Vooruit cannot agree to a coalition that prioritises conservative fiscal reforms and tax cuts, fearing these measures would compromise social security and pensions.

De Wever’s efforts to mediate fell short, even after multiple revisions to the coalition’s “super memo,” a comprehensive draft designed to appeal across party lines. Rousseau remained unmoved, to the frustration of other party leaders such as Maxime Prévot of Les Engagés.

Options

As De Wever prepares to inform the king on Monday, speculation mounts over what could follow. Alternatives to the intended coalition are bleak. The Flemish liberals (Open VLD) could replace Vooruit, which might ease ideological tensions but would leave the coalition with a razor-thin and possibly unworkable majority. Other options would require Wallonia’s socialists to get aboard, but PS chairman Paul Magnette is adamant about staying out of government after his party’s losses in the last elections.

Each scenario thus appears increasingly unviable, leaving the king with limited choices. If the current negotiating parties cannot overcome their differences, it seems unlikely that the current deadlock will be resolved. A crisis like in 2010-11, when Belgium needed a record 541 days to form a federal government, might be looming. 

^{Formateur Bart De Wever © BELGA PHOTO NICOLAS MAETERLINCK}