Elections 2024: Will Brussels be as different after 13 October as it was after 9 June?

The results of the local elections in the 19 municipalities of the Brussel region are particularly hard to predict. The elections of 9 June (EU, national and regional) brought major changes. If those changes are confirmed, several parties fall into irrelevance.

This article has to start with a short lesson in constitutional law: at the regional level, the representation of Flemish people living in Brussels is guaranteed. A minimal number of seats in the Brussels parliament is reserved for Flemish politicians. Such a minimum doesn’t exist on the local level. As a result, only few Flemish politicians have a seat in municipal councils.

In 9 out of the 19 municipalities, now, there isn’t even a monolingual Flemish list. The local Flemish politicians present themselves on the lists of their francophone sister parties.

One of the surprises of 9 June was Team Fouad Ahidar, the party of the former member of Flemish socialist Vooruit, Fouad Ahidar. His list for the regional elections was Flemish, but the lists he entered for the local elections are mainly francophone. The base of Team Fouad Ahidar is the migrant community in Brussels, and other cities.

The difference between the French and the Flemish community in Brussels is best illustrated by the election results of the green parties at the regional elections. Flemish ‘Groen’ did well, thanks to its plan for mobility, which is very popular amongst the Flemish voters, a small group of mainly young, urban, highly educated people. Francophone ‘Ecolo’ lost a lot of votes, amongst the francophone people, which is a much broader and diverse group.

Another loser in the past election is DéFI, a radical francophone party that in recent years saw sharp internal conflicts. At the local level, those conflicts could be less damaging.

A winner of the 9 June-elections was extreme left PvdA/PTB. In urban municipalities, in the Brussels region and for example also in Antwerp, it can’t be excluded that they will become the biggest party. But finding coalition partners after the elections will be much harder.

And then there’s, of course, the duel between the two big francophone parties, liberal MR and socialist PS. In June, MR booked a big victory, PS an equally large defeat. MR hopes to consolidate this on Sunday 13 October, PS fights to hold on to its power base in urban municipalities. MR is traditionally strong in the rich Brussels municipalities. In the poorer municipalities, PS has to fear -also- the competition of communist PvdA/PTB.

Local elections will take place at municipal and provincial levels in Belgium on Sunday 13 October. In the run-up to the vote, Belga English explores the main issues to watch out for and provides an overview of events.

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