Europe braces for US elections with implications for NATO and Ukraine
As the US presidential election approaches, concerns in Europe are mounting over the implications of a potential second term for Donald Trump. European leaders, particularly those in NATO and in nations heavily invested in supporting Ukraine, fear a Trump victory could result in a significant shift in US foreign policy, leaving Ukraine vulnerable in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
In his previous term, Trump’s approach to foreign policy was characterised by strong criticism of NATO and scepticism towards providing open-ended support for European security efforts. His ambivalence toward Kyiv’s fight against Russia has European leaders worried that he might scale back or alter US aid to Ukraine if re-elected.
Earlier this year, Trump voiced his stance on military aid, advocating for structuring it as a loan rather than a grant, reducing the financial burden on US taxpayers. This stance contrasts with the Biden administration, which has continued to support Ukraine with substantial aid packages.
Safety net for Ukraine
In response to the uncertainty surrounding the US election, European officials have worked with the Biden administration to put safeguards in place that could help stabilise Ukraine’s support network even if US assistance changes course.
One of the key measures is a 50 billion USD loan to Ukraine, funded by profits from frozen Russian assets. This loan, agreed by the G7 last week, is intended to allow Ukraine to continue buying arms and sustaining its defence, even if US contributions decrease.
Moreover, NATO is taking steps to protect Ukraine’s aid pipeline by establishing a dedicated command structure to coordinate military assistance. By moving this effort under a NATO military framework, European leaders hope to shield it from political shifts in Washington. However, the US remains NATO’s leading power, meaning a dramatic change in US policy would still ripple through the alliance, potentially affecting aid.
Foreign policy
Kamala Harris, a strong critic of Putin, is expected to continue backing Ukraine if she wins, though she may seek to avoid actions that could escalate the conflict. However, her administration may face resistance from a Congress that could soon lean Republican. As US lawmakers grow increasingly cautious about foreign aid, pressure may mount on Ukraine to find a diplomatic resolution, regardless of who wins the presidency.
Trump has promised a quick end to the war if he wins, claiming he could resolve the conflict within a day of taking office, though he has not specified how he would achieve this. His comments about president Volodymyr Zelensky as “the greatest salesman on Earth” and accusations that Zelensky helped provoke the war have fuelled unease among European leaders who view the situation as a matter of European and American security.
NATO secretary general Mark Rutte recently said that Trump understands “the war is not only about Ukraine, it's also about the safety and the future security of the United States”. However, European officials remain concerned that a second Trump term could lead to a reduction or withdrawal of US support, which would weaken NATO's cohesion and reduce Ukraine’s chances in its struggle against Russian aggression.
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